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Tokyo vs. Regional Cities: Condo Price Comparison 2020–2025

An Analysis of 153,990 Pre-Owned Condominium Transactions Across Japan's Six Major Cities

153,990
Transactions Analyzed
6
Cities
FY2020–FY2025
Years

Updated June 2, 2026

Data Source: MLIT (PDL 1.0) | Analysis & Insights: © Tatemono IQ

Market Overview

Between 2020 and 2025, Japan's six major condo markets — Tokyo's 23 wards and five leading regional cities — experienced a stark structural bifurcation in pre-owned condominium prices. While Tokyo's 23 wards maintained an absolute premium — ending 2025 at a median of ¥1,133k/m² (over four times Sapporo's median) — the momentum belongs to the tier-1 regional powerhouses. Osaka led all markets with +48.8% five-year growth, followed by Fukuoka at +39.9%. Every city appreciated over the period, but the pace diverged sharply: Tokyo (+24.0%), Sapporo (+25.5%) and Nagoya (+23.8%) clustered in the low-to-mid 20s, while Sendai (+19.5%) grew most slowly. This analysis leverages 153,990 official MLIT survey-price transactions across major municipal ward areas.

+325%
Significantly higher
Tokyo premium vs. most affordable city
Sapporo
+48.8%
Fastest growth
Growth 2020→2025 (fastest city)
Osaka
—
Dual-Market Risk
Intra-city asset fracture (Osaka)
Osaka P25–P75 spread (2025)
¥266,667/m²
Most accessible
Most affordable major city
Sapporo

Forces Behind City Price Divergence

Yen Depreciation

The yen's 30%+ decline from 2022–2024 made Japanese real estate cheapest in USD/EUR terms in decades, drawing foreign capital predominantly to Osaka and Tokyo — the two most internationally-visible markets. This tailwind helped lift Osaka to the fastest five-year growth of any market (+48.8%). But the currency effect was one force among several: Fukuoka (+39.9%) appreciated nearly as fast without the same international profile, outpacing Tokyo (+24.0%) — so the weak yen amplified price gains broadly rather than concentrating them only in the headline cities.

Urban Agglomeration Premium

Tokyo and Osaka benefit from irreplaceable agglomeration effects: headquarter concentration, international transit hubs, and high-density transit networks that sustain demand irrespective of macroeconomic cycles. Regional cities compete on affordability and lifestyle, not agglomeration.

Supply Constraints in Core Wards

Central ward land in Tokyo and Osaka is structurally supply-constrained — buildable parcels are scarce and redevelopment cycles are long. Fukuoka and Sapporo have experienced faster supply absorption because their core areas are smaller and demand surged faster than new supply could follow.

Monetary Policy & Mortgage Rates

The Bank of Japan's ultra-loose policy anchored domestic floating-rate mortgages near zero through 2023, fuelling nationwide demand. The interest rate normalisation initiated in 2024 has triggered an immediate divergence: while capital-rich buyers in Tokyo and Osaka absorbed the shift, Nagoya edged down and Sapporo flattened in 2025, signalling higher price sensitivity to credit tightening among locally-leveraged domestic buyers.

Construction Cost Spiral

A weak yen has amplified import costs for construction materials across all six cities. In Tokyo and Osaka, soaring new-build prices have channelled domestic buyers into the pre-owned market, driving resale prices upward. In Sapporo and Fukuoka, this same supply-side inflation has restricted affordable new-build starts, forcing local demand into the established transaction market and keeping resale pricing resilient through 2024 despite mounting credit headwinds.

Price Trends

Six-City Condo Price Trend 2020–2025

Tokyo's 23 special wards climbed from ¥914k/m² in 2020 to ¥1,133k/m² in 2025 (+24.0%), yet the fastest capital appreciation occurred in Japan's secondary commercial hubs. Osaka surged +48.8% to ¥727k/m² — the strongest of any market — while Fukuoka rose +39.9% to ¥485k/m². Every one of the six cities appreciated in a broadly steady climb across 2020–2025, with no market-wide reversal along the way. Nagoya ended the five-year period up +23.8%, easing only modestly from its 2024 peak, while Sapporo — Japan's most affordable major market at ¥267k/m² — rose +25.5% and held its 2025 level flat against 2024. Sendai posted the most measured gain at +19.5%.

+325%
Tokyo premium vs. cheapest city
+48.8%
Fastest city growth 2020→2025
¥266,667/m²
Most affordable city median
+325%
Widest city-to-city gap

City Condo Median ¥/m² — FY2020 to FY2025

Median · Annual · Ward-aggregated · MLIT reinfolib · Min. 30 transactions

¥200k¥500k¥850k¥1150k202020212022202320242025NagoyaOsakaFukuokaSapporoSendaiTokyoSource: Tatemono IQ (tatemonoiq.com) · Data: MLIT Reinfolib

All six cities use ward-level aggregation (区部). Tokyo = 23 special wards (東京都区部). Data paths represent continuous annual market activity across all key city zones.

City Rankings

Pre-owned Condominium Prices by City

Median ¥/m² · Latest year · Ward-aggregated · Minimum 30 transactions · Source: MLIT reinfolib 取引価格情報

RankCityMedian ¥/m²2020→2025
01Tokyo¥1,133,333+24%
02Osaka¥727,273+48.8%
03Fukuoka¥485,000+39.9%
04Nagoya¥412,500+23.8%
05Sendai¥327,273+19.5%
06Sapporo¥266,667+25.5%

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More Market Intelligence

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Methodology

  • Buyer-reported survey data, covering roughly 20–30% of residential transactions (MLIT questionnaire response rate ~30%)
  • All six cities use ward-level aggregation (区部); Tokyo = 23 special wards aggregate (東京都区部), not the broader Tokyo prefecture
  • High-density sample verification: all six municipal markets maintain robust transaction volumes, averaging over 25,000 validated data points per city across the baseline period
  • Licensed PDL 1.0 (Public Data License) — freely republishable with attribution

Data Attribution

Source
不動産情報ライブラリ (MLIT reinfolib)
URL
https://www.reinfolib.mlit.go.jp/
License
PDL 1.0
Last updated
June 2026

Period Anchoring

Why we use a 2020 baseline for city comparison

This report anchors growth metrics to FY2020, the year the report series begins. Unlike the national residential report (which uses FY2021 to measure the post-COVID recovery), the city comparison is designed to show the full five-year arc across all six cities on equal terms. Every city in this report exhibits deep market liquidity and robust sample density in FY2020, ensuring the 2020 baseline provides a statistically sound, apples-to-apples comparison across all six major markets.

Why We Use Medians

Why our medians differ from index figures

Tatemono IQ transaction medians represent raw price-per-m² aggregates across all unit sizes, building ages, and micro-geographies within each city's ward area. In contrast, institutional index figures (such as Tokyo Kantei's 70m²-equivalent baseline) filter to family-type 70m² units and aggregate asking prices, designed to smooth out single-period transaction noise. While index figures yield higher headline numbers by filtering out compact units, Tatemono IQ uses raw transaction medians because they accurately map actual transaction liquidity — reflecting the exact capital outlays deployed by buyers in the market.

For Tokyo specifically: our median includes the significant volume of high-yield compact studio and one-bedroom units common in the 23 wards. This produces a lower absolute price point than a normalized 70m² family-condo index, but offers a truer, unfiltered view of total market velocity — the actual prices at which units transacted across the full spectrum of buyer activity.

Licensing & Rights

Terms of Use & Fair Citation

This report and its unique visual analyses are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). You are free to download, share, and excerpt this material for non-commercial purposes, provided that clear, un-shortened attribution is given to Tatemono IQ with a link back to this original page. You may not use the material for commercial purposes or distribute modified versions. For commercial licensing, contact Tatemono IQ.

Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License

Cite This Report

Tatemono IQ. (2026). Tokyo vs. Regional Cities: Condo Price Comparison 2020–2025. Retrieved from https://www.tatemonoiq.com/en/market-reports/tokyo-vs-regional-cities