Japan Prefecture Demographic Demand Scorecard

Name: Best Prefectures to Invest in Japan: Demographic Demand Scorecard | Tatemono IQ
Creator: Tatemono IQ
Published: 2026-06-27
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

All 47 Prefectures Ranked by Projected Household Growth Through 2040 for Two Investor Cohorts

Prefectures Ranked

Strong Tailwind Prefectures

Strong Headwind Prefectures

Updated June 27, 2026

Data Source: IPSS 2024 (9th edition) | Analysis & Insights: © Tatemono IQ

Market Overview

Japan's population is shrinking, but housing demand is not falling evenly — it is concentrating. This scorecard ranks all 47 prefectures by the projected 2025→2040 growth in households for two investor-relevant cohorts: single adults aged 25–39 (the core renter pool for compact urban units) and single seniors aged 65 and over (the demand base for senior housing). For young singles, only a small group of prefectures — led by Okinawa and the major metropolitan employment hubs — still shows positive household growth, while most of the country faces a measurable headwind. For seniors, every one of the 47 prefectures shows a tailwind as the population ages and solo living rises. The two rankings share their leaders — Okinawa ranks #1 for both cohorts, and half of the top ten appear on both lists — but they diverge sharply beyond that overlap, and that divergence is the core investment signal: the right prefecture depends heavily on which cohort you are housing. Every figure is a direct export of IPSS 2024 9th-edition projections, run through the same demographic scoring Tatemono IQ uses inside its live product.

Rental Demand Cohort

Single Adults 25–39: Prefecture Demand Ranking

All 47 prefectures ranked by the projected 2025→2040 compound annual growth rate of single-person households aged 25–39 — the core renter pool for compact 1K/1DK units. Source: IPSS 2024 9th-edition projections.

Rank	Prefecture	Households 2025	Households 2040	CAGR 2025→2040	Demand Band
01	Okinawa	53,724	56,448	+0.3%	Mild Tailwind
02	Hiroshima	100,378	104,253	+0.3%	Neutral
03	Kagawa	28,095	29,025	+0.2%	Neutral
04	Fukuoka	230,528	236,848	+0.2%	Neutral
05	Chiba	282,764	290,246	+0.2%	Neutral
06	Saitama	292,799	298,188	+0.1%	Neutral
07	Tokyo	1,268,862	1,292,004	+0.1%	Neutral
08	Tottori	10,814	10,998	+0.1%	Neutral
09	Kanagawa	466,297	473,233	+0.1%	Neutral
10	Ishikawa	33,716	34,189	+0.1%	Neutral
11	Shiga	44,659	45,293	+0.1%	Neutral
12	Kumamoto	47,283	47,724	+0.1%	Neutral
13	Oita	31,608	31,905	+0.1%	Neutral
14	Aichi	325,350	327,705	+0.1%	Neutral
15	Hyogo	172,146	172,452	+0%	Neutral
16	Saga	17,191	17,194	+0%	Neutral
17	Miyazaki	26,834	26,827	-0%	Neutral
18	Shizuoka	105,266	105,162	-0%	Neutral
19	Shimane	15,915	15,887	-0%	Neutral
20	Yamaguchi	35,826	35,792	-0%	Neutral
21	Tochigi	59,835	59,689	-0%	Neutral
22	Toyama	24,008	23,673	-0.1%	Neutral
23	Kagoshima	42,568	41,922	-0.1%	Neutral
24	Okayama	60,633	59,546	-0.1%	Neutral
25	Ehime	37,088	36,347	-0.1%	Neutral
26	Ibaraki	89,610	87,745	-0.1%	Neutral
27	Gunma	57,246	56,016	-0.1%	Neutral
28	Fukui	17,380	16,916	-0.2%	Neutral
29	Mie	53,896	52,198	-0.2%	Neutral
30	Gifu	48,139	46,555	-0.2%	Neutral
31	Kyoto	110,662	106,858	-0.2%	Neutral
32	Miyagi	86,076	83,039	-0.2%	Neutral
33	Nagasaki	26,819	25,526	-0.3%	Mild Headwind
34	Nagano	50,152	47,612	-0.3%	Mild Headwind
35	Nara	24,923	23,401	-0.4%	Mild Headwind
36	Osaka	431,152	403,259	-0.4%	Mild Headwind
37	Niigata	46,216	42,724	-0.5%	Mild Headwind
38	Kochi	15,962	14,708	-0.5%	Mild Headwind
39	Hokkaido	191,295	174,909	-0.6%	Mild Headwind
40	Yamanashi	18,708	17,014	-0.6%	Mild Headwind
41	Tokushima	16,451	14,745	-0.7%	Mild Headwind
42	Yamagata	18,799	16,828	-0.7%	Mild Headwind
43	Wakayama	17,072	15,228	-0.8%	Mild Headwind
44	Iwate	26,961	23,387	-0.9%	Mild Headwind
45	Fukushima	44,338	37,140	-1.2%	Mild Headwind
46	Akita	14,762	12,123	-1.3%	Mild Headwind
47	Aomori	21,345	16,917	-1.5%	Strong Headwind

Demand Tailwind by Prefecture (top & bottom movers)

Household CAGR 2025→2040 · IPSS 2024 · Tokyo highlighted

Diverging bars show the annualized 2025→2040 household CAGR. Bars to the right (green) indicate demographic tailwinds; bars to the left (amber/red) indicate headwinds. Shows the five strongest and five weakest prefectures plus Tokyo for reference.

Senior Housing Demand Cohort

Single Seniors 65+: Prefecture Demand Ranking

All 47 prefectures ranked by the projected 2025→2040 compound annual growth rate of single-person households aged 65 and over — the demand base for senior housing, accessible rentals, and care-adjacent property. Source: IPSS 2024 9th-edition projections.

Rank	Prefecture	Households 2025	Households 2040	CAGR 2025→2040	Demand Band
01	Okinawa	88,155	126,924	+2.5%	Strong Tailwind
02	Kanagawa	574,756	810,865	+2.3%	Strong Tailwind
03	Shiga	73,052	102,840	+2.3%	Strong Tailwind
04	Tokyo	948,126	1,320,926	+2.2%	Strong Tailwind
05	Aichi	417,702	580,664	+2.2%	Strong Tailwind
06	Saitama	422,370	581,475	+2.2%	Strong Tailwind
07	Chiba	382,267	515,892	+2%	Strong Tailwind
08	Ibaraki	168,344	223,123	+1.9%	Strong Tailwind
09	Miyagi	129,381	171,056	+1.9%	Strong Tailwind
10	Tochigi	110,809	143,856	+1.8%	Strong Tailwind
11	Yamanashi	53,121	68,623	+1.7%	Strong Tailwind
12	Gunma	115,977	149,328	+1.7%	Strong Tailwind
13	Nagano	117,163	150,228	+1.7%	Strong Tailwind
14	Shizuoka	199,750	253,557	+1.6%	Strong Tailwind
15	Hyogo	396,258	502,384	+1.6%	Strong Tailwind
16	Ishikawa	65,114	82,390	+1.6%	Strong Tailwind
17	Gifu	107,745	136,068	+1.6%	Strong Tailwind
18	Kyoto	188,565	235,916	+1.5%	Strong Tailwind
19	Osaka	662,074	827,468	+1.5%	Mild Tailwind
20	Mie	106,902	133,488	+1.5%	Mild Tailwind
21	Nara	86,363	107,027	+1.4%	Mild Tailwind
22	Fukuoka	353,196	436,076	+1.4%	Mild Tailwind
23	Fukui	38,513	47,540	+1.4%	Mild Tailwind
24	Toyama	55,872	68,456	+1.4%	Mild Tailwind
25	Fukushima	110,410	134,504	+1.3%	Mild Tailwind
26	Niigata	119,918	144,537	+1.3%	Mild Tailwind
27	Okayama	119,704	144,053	+1.2%	Mild Tailwind
28	Saga	44,490	52,885	+1.2%	Mild Tailwind
29	Hiroshima	183,548	217,856	+1.2%	Mild Tailwind
30	Kagawa	64,272	75,796	+1.1%	Mild Tailwind
31	Kumamoto	110,264	129,090	+1.1%	Mild Tailwind
32	Hokkaido	400,473	466,738	+1%	Mild Tailwind
33	Iwate	74,731	86,631	+1%	Mild Tailwind
34	Yamagata	52,603	60,990	+1%	Mild Tailwind
35	Tottori	32,522	37,526	+1%	Mild Tailwind
36	Ehime	108,139	123,668	+0.9%	Mild Tailwind
37	Aomori	84,070	95,986	+0.9%	Mild Tailwind
38	Tokushima	55,620	63,464	+0.9%	Mild Tailwind
39	Wakayama	70,069	78,723	+0.8%	Mild Tailwind
40	Nagasaki	94,917	106,293	+0.8%	Mild Tailwind
41	Oita	80,250	89,838	+0.8%	Mild Tailwind
42	Miyazaki	80,333	89,668	+0.7%	Mild Tailwind
43	Shimane	40,883	45,464	+0.7%	Mild Tailwind
44	Akita	65,213	71,062	+0.6%	Mild Tailwind
45	Kagoshima	134,962	145,678	+0.5%	Mild Tailwind
46	Yamaguchi	104,420	111,192	+0.4%	Mild Tailwind
47	Kochi	61,952	65,230	+0.3%	Mild Tailwind

Demand Tailwind by Prefecture (top & bottom movers)

Household CAGR 2025→2040 · IPSS 2024 · Tokyo highlighted

Forces Behind Japan's Demographic Demand Divergence

Metropolitan Concentration

Young single adults continue migrating toward Tokyo, Fukuoka, and other employment hubs, sustaining renter-pool growth in a handful of prefectures even as the national population declines.

National Population Decline

Japan's total population has fallen since 2008, and IPSS projects the decline to accelerate through 2040 — shrinking the household base across most rural prefectures and concentrating demand geographically.

Accelerated Aging

The single-person 65+ household cohort grows in every one of the 47 prefectures as the postwar generations age and more seniors live alone — a structural tailwind for senior housing that is distinct from the youth-rental picture.

Household Atomization

Average household size keeps shrinking as marriage rates fall and single-person living rises, so household counts — the actual unit of housing demand — hold up better than raw population in many areas.

Regional Bifurcation

A widening split separates a small set of growth prefectures from a long tail of declining ones. Investors increasingly need prefecture- and cohort-level demand signals rather than a single national narrative.

Data Source & Methodology

About this data

Source: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) — 国立社会保障・人口問題研究所. Household Projections by Prefecture.
Edition: 2024 (9th edition), anchored on the 2020 national census.
Coverage: All 47 prefectures · projection window 2025–2040 (15-year annualized CAGR) · IPSS series extends to 2050.

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Methodology

Household projections are sourced from IPSS 2024 (9th edition), anchored on the 2020 national census and projected in 5-year steps to 2050.
CAGR is the 15-year annualized growth in projected household counts from 2025 to 2040: ((2040 ÷ 2025)^(1/15) − 1) × 100.
Demand bands use Tatemono IQ's live scoring thresholds (annualized CAGR, non-overlapping): Strong Tailwind ≥ +1.5%; Mild Tailwind from +0.3% up to +1.5%; Neutral above −0.3% up to +0.3%; Mild Headwind above −1.5% up to −0.3%; Strong Headwind ≤ −1.5%.
This report is a direct export of the same demographic signals Tatemono IQ's AI uses for property analysis; it is refreshed manually after each IPSS release.

Data Attribution

Source: 国立社会保障・人口問題研究所 (IPSS)
URL: https://www.ipss.go.jp/
License: IPSS terms of use
Last updated: June 2026

Projection Window

Why we use a 2025→2040 window

We annualize household change over the 2025→2040 window because it spans a full 15-year investment horizon while staying within the high-confidence near-to-mid term of the IPSS projection series. Shorter windows over-weight near-term census noise; the full 2050 horizon stretches beyond the planning life of most acquisitions. The 15-year window also matches the window used by Tatemono IQ's live tailwind scoring, keeping this report in parity with the product.

Cohort Definitions

How the two investor cohorts are defined

The 'Single 25–39' cohort sums projected single-person households across the 25–29, 30–34, and 35–39 age bands — the primary renter pool for compact 1K/1DK units. The 'Single 65+' cohort uses the IPSS pre-aggregated single-person 65-and-over household figure — the demand base for senior housing and accessible rentals.

Both cohorts measure households, not individuals, because the household is the unit at which housing is demanded. A prefecture can lose population while gaining single-person households as average household size shrinks — which is precisely why cohort-level household projections, rather than headline population, drive this scorecard.

Licensing & Rights

The underlying household projections are published by IPSS under its own terms of use; please consult the IPSS site for source-data licensing. Tatemono IQ's analysis, rankings, scoring, and visualizations in this report are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). You are free to share and adapt this material, including for commercial purposes, provided clear attribution is given to Tatemono IQ with a link back to this original page.

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

Cite This Report

Tatemono IQ. (2026). Japan Prefecture Demographic Demand Scorecard. Retrieved from https://www.tatemonoiq.com/en/market-reports/japan-prefecture-demographic-scorecard